Skip to main content

How long will reaching a Risk Awareness Moment and CHARTS agreement take?

· One min read
Gaurav Yadav

This report aims to develop a forecast to an open question from the analysis, ‘Prospects for AI safety agreements between countries’ (Guest, 2023): Is there sufficient time to have a ‘risk awareness moment’ in either the US (along with its allies) and China in place before an international AI safety agreement can no longer meaningfully reduce extinction risks from AI?

Bottom line: My overall estimate/best guess is that there is at least a 40% chance there will be adequate time to implement a CHARTS agreement before it ceases to be relevant.

You can read the report in full here.